Charles, at Political Arithmetik, has two new reviews of the generic party polling in advance of the congressional elections. At least two striking findings for me are: (1) the range of variation in these polls is substantial, and (2) so far, at least, the recent increase in presidential approval is having little or not effect on poll-respondents’ congressional partisan preference.
With caveats about the variability, Democrats still enjoy more than a ten-point advantage.
Click on “US vote ’06″ above to see the previous discussion of these polls and the difficulty of translating them into actual votes for actual candidates, and into an ultimate seat distribution.
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