I do not think either of the two ‘federal’ models being talked about is a good one. And I am not talking here about issues concerning the jurisdictional authority of the subnational entities or their possible right to secede (which I mentioned in an earlier post). I am talking about the number of semi-autonomous subnational entities (regions, states, provinces, republics, or whatever they might be called).

One model–the Kurds’ and apparently also the Sunnis’–has a single such entity, Iraqi Kurdistan. The rest of the country, in this model, would be governed as a unitary state, under central authority from Baghdad and without any regional autonomy.

A second model–which seems to be that of the Shiite leaders–would create three regions. One for themselves, one for the Kurds, and one for the Sunnis.

Both of these are bad, because they are unbalanced, though in different ways. The first gives one regional subset of the population autonomy not enjoyed by any of the rest of the population. This could be unworkable, and could increase separatist tendencies in the single semi-autonomous region on account of how different its status would be (which, of course, could be why Kurds like it).

The second creates a single subnational entitity in which a majority of the population lives. This means that the entities are highly unequal and one of them inevitably will dominate (which, of course, could be why the Shiites like it).

A better model would be to create several subnational entities, so that there are at least two for the predominantly Shitite regions. It need not be based on the 18 provinces, though that might be an easy way to start, and then set up a process by which pairs (or more) of provinces could unify into larger entities, but with a ceiling on the total share of the population that any one can have.

Balanced federalism is what Iraq needs. That means all parts of the country enjoy the same rights to regional self-governance, but that no regional government be responsible for the majority of the population.

As I said in an earlier post, this would seem to be in the Sunni interest. And I think it can be done in a way that is not detrimental to Kurdish or Shiite interests, as well. Just not before midnight on August 22.